From Campaign to Code: Can Tax Related Presidential Campaign Promises Become Reality?

Adam Brewer • October 23, 2024

Can Presidential Campaign Promises Become Reality?

Both Former President Trump and Vice President Harris have made numerous tax-related campaign promises in recent weeks.  While tax law changes targeted toward undecided voters is nothing new in presidential politics, the speed and significance of the proposed changes is worth noting.  Among the changes being discussed on the campaign trail are:
Again, it is not new for candidates to make campaign promises so what chance do these proposals have at becoming law?  Recent history shows a mixed record of success.  On the campaign trail in 2016, then presidential candidate Trump proposed eliminating the estate tax, a 15% corporate tax rate, and a 10% repatriation tax on corporate profits being held overseas.  While Former President Trump ultimately succeeded to reducing taxes for corporation and encouraging repatriation of profits being held overseas, he failed to deliver the 15% corporate tax rate or to eliminate the Federal estate tax.
 
A change to the tax law requires that the law pass through the House, the Senate, and be signed by the President.  While the Presidential race and control of the House are tossups,  Republicans are generally expected to control the Senate.  The real possibility of split control of Congress would mean the vast majority of these proposals are dead on arrival.  Further, the margins at which either party will control the House and Senate would allow for very few if any defections.  That will be a significant challenge for Republicans as recent history has shown a hesitancy to approve tax cuts without offsetting the loss in revenue elsewhere.

In short, the changes being proposed this cycle are possible, but not likely based on the high probability of split control of Congress and the razor thin margins should either party control the presidency, the House, and the Senate.